tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post869675847295184232..comments2024-03-28T06:49:24.930-04:00Comments on International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina: EU Fiscal Union Is Highly UnlikelyThomas Oatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14092437150746625670noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post-26068602457630530412011-09-10T05:53:26.931-04:002011-09-10T05:53:26.931-04:00Seeing as the Italians are working on an ECB-force...Seeing as the Italians are working on an ECB-forced austerity drive right now, the Spanish (and French) are installing a German-style debt brake in the their constitution, I am not so sure why you think the Southerners wouldn't accept those terms.<br /><br />Plus, if you look at the recent Dutch proposal (which supposedly has Finnish and German backing), then the way to avoid ceding sovereignty to Germany is giving it to Brussles ('ever deeper union' <i>quoi</i>), which is really the way the EU has been functioning since the 70s (crisis, lots of talk of the EU failing --> deeper integration).<br /><br />As for treaty change. Hell yeah, it'd be difficult but veto power doesn't work the way you imagine it to be. Rarely does a single state block something, they usually get some kind of a deal or an opt-out clause and things move on. This especially as this whole affair has made clear that we are fast approaching a two-speed EU.Benjamin Thomas Sutpenhttp://sensemania.blogpsot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post-82062482305356284482011-09-08T14:39:06.018-04:002011-09-08T14:39:06.018-04:00I can't read German so my impressions are larg...I can't read German so my impressions are largely formed by the international press or German pubs with English versions (eg Der Spiegel), but my impression is that many of the Germans who would support a US of Europe would do so only under the conditions that a) Germany has a lot of control over how the funding mechanisms work; b) that there are strict, enforceable rules for fiscal discipline. There are good reasons to think that those terms are not acceptable to Greeks, Portugese, and Spanish. And there are good reasons for northern European countries (eg Finland) to reject them too, since they will essentially be ceding more sovereignty to Germany even though they have no need for the new union. <br /><br />All it takes is one country to veto any plan. Given the difficulties getting Lisbon through during an economic boom, it seems pretty likely (to me) that there will be one such country for pretty much any feasible agreement. The relevant question isn't "Do you want more Europe?" The relevant question is "How much would you pay for more Europe?" The answer to that is far from clear. And it's not a good sign when far-right parties are gaining ground in the Euronorth while left parties are gaining in the Eurosouth. <br /><br />I'm not sure that the eurozone will break-up, although I think the chances are pretty good. I still think the plan is to try to muddle through until growth returns to the Eurosouth thus allowing them to service their debt, or the banking sector in the Euronorth recapitalizes sufficiently that a sovereign default won't cause a new crisis. Whichever of those happens first will determine what comes later, I think.<br /><br />After that is resolved Europe might look towards further fiscal integration, a regional version of the IMF, or at least "Maastricht with enforcement". But the current crisis has to be resolved one way or the other first.Kindred Winecoffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14330671232391851377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post-79618696586826611922011-09-08T08:42:00.770-04:002011-09-08T08:42:00.770-04:00Don't make it too easy for yourself. Schäuble ...Don't make it too easy for yourself. Schäuble is in favor of further integration, von der Leyen (the German Labor Minister) recently came out in favour of a United States in Europe. The German opposition is in favour (in other words the (probably) next German government) also.<br /><br />Voter preferences are also far from as certain as you make them sound. It just depends on how questions are framed ('Do you want more Europe' for example garners a hugely positive response almost everywhere).<br /><br />Finally, you'll have to ask yourself whether economic necessities won't force politicians to choose between the break-up of the € and fiscal union. I would (and actually have) put my money on fiscal union in that case.Benjamin Thomas Sutpenhttp://sensemania.blogpsot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post-75928923927159606142011-09-07T17:42:19.461-04:002011-09-07T17:42:19.461-04:00That's about what I figured, but I wasn't ...That's about what I figured, but I wasn't sure if I was missing something.<br /><br />Thanks for responding to my less than subtle request. :)Phil Arenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07914096126693147647noreply@blogger.com