tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post8792442721262722612..comments2024-03-28T06:49:24.930-04:00Comments on International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina: The Data Do NOT Show the Paradox of ThriftThomas Oatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14092437150746625670noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post-62765104912013541482009-07-13T19:59:26.334-04:002009-07-13T19:59:26.334-04:00true, any Europe/US comparison isn't exactly a...true, any Europe/US comparison isn't exactly apples-to-apples. you're right about one of the reasons -- Europe has more "automatic stabilizers" that actually functions as stimulus during downturns -- but also because European countries and the US are different in a million different ways. Germany relies much more on industrial exports than US or France.<br /><br />but comparisons are never perfect. we do have three major examples of OECD countries engaging in large stimulus spending -- US, UK, Japan -- while the rest of the OECD has mostly stood pat (they've had some bailouts, but so have we). hopefully in the coming years we'll be able to learn more about how stimulus actually works, and these cross-national policy divergences could give us a way to do that.Kindred Winecoffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14330671232391851377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post-63448033647650487042009-07-13T19:36:48.589-04:002009-07-13T19:36:48.589-04:00thanks for setting me straight. sometimes I reall...thanks for setting me straight. sometimes I really wonder how I was awarded a minor in economics.<br /><br />btw - can we really compare a non-stimulus continental Europe with a stimulus US given the disparity in non-stimulus social spending between Europe and the US?Sarah Bauerle Danzmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11268909823574840085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post-76079504894941422022009-07-13T15:54:16.655-04:002009-07-13T15:54:16.655-04:00Sarah -
No. The Paradox of Thrift is that as ever...Sarah -<br /><br />No. The Paradox of Thrift is that as everyone saves, economic activity decreases to the point that total savings actually goes down. It isn't primarily about "getting out of the recession"... just about savings. <br /><br />as for rational expectations models of the effects of stimulus: there are lots of them, and they show lots of different things. it depends on the starting assumptions. i'm not entirely convinced by the rational expectations story, but my point in this post was that Krugman is being intellectually dishonest. <br /><br />finally, we do sort of have counterfactuals of the world without stimulus: Continental Europe.Kindred Winecoffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14330671232391851377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post-72071351943204923572009-07-13T08:27:37.150-04:002009-07-13T08:27:37.150-04:00Will:
Isn't the whole point of the paradox of...Will:<br /><br />Isn't the whole point of the paradox of thrift that individuals, due to a simple PD game, always save during recessions. In order to boost demand and get out of the recession, government steps in and spends the money that individuals won't? If so, I don't understand how the data show something different. And even if there is a rational expectation effect, can anyone show that it totally erases the impact of government stimulus spending? The problem here seems to be one of a counterfactual. What would the world be like without the stimulus?Sarah Bauerle Danzmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11268909823574840085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1331441403058020963.post-83798854152241369282009-07-10T23:09:05.172-04:002009-07-10T23:09:05.172-04:00Enjoyed your article. Saw in on Seeking Alpha.
W....Enjoyed your article. Saw in on Seeking Alpha.<br /><br />W.E. Heasley, CLU, LUTCF<br />Chief Economist<br />Heasley Insurance Services, LLCW.E. Heasleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00368333904571061995noreply@blogger.com