Monday, June 15, 2009

Morning Iran Round-Up

. Monday, June 15, 2009

Another superthread. See previous threads here.

[UPDATE: 9:40] Tehran, right now (from Skynews, via Twitter):



[UPDATE: 8:55] Khameini's "change of position":



[UPDATE: 8:10] I'm signing off for awhile, but Sullivan and Pitney are still going strong, and Twitter feeds from inside Iran are still working.

[UPDATE: 7:40] Dennis Ross removed as U.S. envoy to Iran? If so, why?

[UPDATE: 7:35] Some of the aftermath of yesterday.

[UPDATE: 7:29] All the Twitter chatter is that Mousavi will be participating in the rally in-person. He hasn't been seen since Friday, and had said that if the government refused his request for a demonstration permit (which they did) that he would lead a crowd through the streets to Imam Khomeini's tomb.

The rally/protest should be underway as I type.

[UPDATE: 7:15] Demosthenes runs down endgame scenarios. Nothing is clear:

As to the other two... they were predictable. There aren't a lot of endgames here. One is an out-and-out revolution, but as I said earlier, I find that unlikely. Revolutions and civil wars require a number of predictable elements, and while some exist in Iran—like a huge gap between people's self-perception of their status and what they believe should be their status—others aren't. Among others, the alternative elite structure that forms the backbone of a revolution as a prospective government just isn't appearing. Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Karrobi and the rest still have stakes in the current system, and nobody else appears to be in any kind of position to take over.

(Certainly MEK isn't.)

What this suggests is that they are going to attempt to use the strife to convince the power-holders in the current system, the Mullahs, that neither Ahmadinejad nor Khamenei are fit to rule in their name. Mousavi and Karrobi are doing that by not backing down and ensuring that the protesters aren't going to back down either. Rafsanjani is doing that by approaching the Mullahs in the Assembly of Experts as the spokeman for his moderate faction, and trying to convince them to see things his way.


Iran tried to get the press out of the country and shut down the internet, but (so far, at least) they have been unable to do so. If they had been successful, they could have just killed everyone and moved on. But now the world is watching, and extreme crackdowns will make it harder to achieve national goals like furthering the nuclear program, re-establishing economic ties, and broadening Persian influence in the region. Mousavi, Rafsanjani, and Karrobi may not wish revolution, but they might get it anyway.

-- Has Ahmadinejad gotten stronger because of the protests? Rozen doesn't think so.

-- Rozen also with a brief summary of yesterday's events.

-- Khameini, after twice congratulating Ahmadinejad on his victory, has instructed the Guardian Council to review the election.

-- Obama's approach is sure to disappoint some.

-- WTF, E.U.?

-- The official election results, broken down by candidate and province, along with a few maps, tables, and graphs.

-- Fallows on Iran and the internet.

-- Mousavi asked permission for a demonstration today. It was denied. He called it off, but it is unclear whether protesters will oblige. Some internet chatter:

I am in Iran as well and most of the stuff IM was saying were horsecrap. I could have gotten killed yesterday had I not pulled a few jacky chan type moves. Anyways In about 2 hours there's gonna be war. Rahpeymami az meydoon enqelab ta meydoon azadi. People don't care if mousavi shows up or not this time we're going out with weapons of our own.


It was scheduled to start at 7:30 a.m. EDT.

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