Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Arbitrage Opportunity of the Day

. Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Tyler Cowen points to a discussion of the possibility of physicists discovering the Higgs Boson Particle, and notes that InTrade has the odds of discovery prior to Jan. 1, 2014 as 88%. Which is true. But InTrade also has the odds of discovery prior to Jan. 1, 2015 as 60%. (The market for discovery prior to Jan. 1, 2016 appears to not be trading.) This makes no sense. It's illegal for folks in the U.S. to use sites like InTrade, but readers in foreign countries have a chance to make some money.

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Arbitrage Opportunity of the Day
 
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