The End of the United States of America

Fun article posted online by the WSJ today:

For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

The Russian professor even has a map where he predicts that the US will break up into six entities (map can be found at the bottom of the article): 1) The Texas Republic (influenced by or under direct control of Mexico), 2) Atlantic America (influenced by or under direct control of the EU), 3) The Central-North American Republic (influenced by or under direct control of Canada), 4) The Californian Republic (influenced by or under direct control of China), 5) Alaska (which will go to Russia...of course it will), and 6) Hawaii (which will go to either Japan or China). 

Two problems: 1) There is no way in hell that South Carolina, West Virginia and Tennessee will peacefully join the European Union. 2) Texas joining Mexico - I don't think so.

US Dominance - Fading away?

The US National Intelligence Council just released its latest Global Trends report, and the analysis is far grimmer for the United States then its 2004 report.

According to the Intelligence Report, the world is moving towards multipolarity, with China, India, and Russia in line to challenge US dominance by 2025.  The dollar will continue to decline in prominence as power shifts eastward.

Interestingly, the report finds the worlds biggest security threats will stem from economic concerns - trade and investment disputes, competition for natural resources especially water and energy resources, and strategic technology development.

Now, there is considerable criticism about the track record of NIC report accuracy, especially regarding previous assessments of Japan and Russia.  However, the assessment is interesting in its pessimism.  Multipolarity upsetting the stabilizing effect of US hegemony, nuclear weapons deployed by rogue groups, the inadequacy of the US military in combating irregular warfare methods - seems like the current financial crisis is the least of our worries.

So, all you policy wonks, get to work crafting exit strategies - or at least start trying to find a way to get an EU passport . . . . .