A Debate I'd Like to See

I haven't yet had a chance to read Alex Tabarrok's new e-book, Launching the Innovation Revolution, but judging from this Atlantic precis of it as well as a number of blog posts I'm wondering if we can goad him into a debate with Tyler Cowen. The debate could be had either at MR or some other forum (Bloggingheads?), and could be conducted along the following lines:

The sort of infrastructure investment that Tabarrok wishes to see -- e.g. nationwide wi-fi, more/better airports, a smarter electricity grid -- are intended to harness human capital in an effort to spur innovation. Cowen argues that the innovations we see right now, particularly in the area of information technology, may improve the human condition but do not boost material resources. Given that, it is unwise to invest more of our stagnating resource base on infrastructure investments that will not replenish it.

If Cowen agreed with something close to this proposition he could affirm it and Tabarrok could adopt the opposing side. Cowen has argued that he expects innovation to resume in the future; perhaps as part of the discussion he could more clearly articulate what policies he would adopt to hasten that day.

I'm less interested in the areas where the two agree, e.g. over a massive revision of the regulatory code. I'm more interested in where they do not agree, which seems to include their macro views of the economy and the relative likelihoods of different possible futures.

Political Science Invented the Interwebs

It's a series of tubes, right? Anyway, Errol Morris writes about how his brother helped set up the first e-mail system in the MIT political science department:

In 1965, at the beginning of the year, there was a bunch of stuff going on with the time-sharing system that Noel and I were users of. We were working for the political science department. And the system programmers wrote a programming staff note memo that proposed the creation of a mail command. But people proposed things in programming staff notes that never got implemented. And well, we thought the idea of electronic mail was a great idea. We said, "Where's electronic mail? That would be so cool." And they said, "Oh, there's no time to write that. It's not important." And we said, "Well, can we write it?" And we did. And then it became part of the system.

From political science to you, world. Kind of. Okay not really.

(How crazy is it that e-mail was originally deemed "not important".)

Via.

The Irony of TGS

Tyler Cowen writes a new preface for the pulp-and-glue TGS, and quotes this bit:

The original publication of The Great Stagnation was in eBook form only, and I meant for that to reflect an argument of the book itself: The contemporary world has plenty of innovations, but most of them do not benefit the average household. After all, the average household does not own an eReader. It’s not even clear whether the average household buys and reads books. So I viewed the exclusive electronic publication, somewhat impishly, as an act of self-reference to the underlying problem itself. It was therefore a bit amusing when some critics suggested that the new medium of the eBook itself refuted the book’s stagnation theory—quite the contrary.

I obviously can't judge what Cowen's intentions were, but how many strange arguments are in this paragraph? First, when has the publication of any book ever benefitted the average household in the macroeconomic sense he's talking about? Publishing has been about superstar economics since Gutenberg. But if we're talking about information access, it's inarguable that the average household is way better off than it was in 1890 or 1973. Which fact does not support Cowen's thesis.

Does Cowen remember hearing about an obscure book or music album when he was a boy, and not being able to get it because the local shop didn't carry it? I do, and I'm quite a bit younger than him so I'm sure he does as well. Maybe there was mail-order, but that would take weeks and involve getting a cashier's check or a money order and mailing it off, with hope that you weren't being gypped. That world doesn't exist anymore. That is a good thing. No it hasn't added many high marginal product jobs, but the previous scarcity didn't add many either.

Second, maybe the average/median person does not have an eBook reader, but that's their own fault. eBook readers are literally free, once the hardware is obtained. The average/median person in America has a computer, tablet, smart phone, and/or ready access to one of those devices*. The eBook software on all of those devices is free. If they aren't reading, it's not because of Stagnation. It's because of taste.

Third, why is all this amusing? Tyler Cowen would be practically anonymous were it not for the innovations he now says are mostly inconsequential. Through those innovations he has a famous blog, a NYTimes op-ed column, a notable economics textbook, a book deal with a mainstream press, etc.

I certainly don't begrudge him any of those things... I'm a big fan. I never would have heard of Cowen were it not for 21st century technology, but through new media I've gained access to Cowen in a way I never would have before. Cowen is one of the lower-case superstars in a superstarish economy. He's been able to market himself and his skills because of the very technological innovations that he argues aren't terribly important. Without them, he wouldn't have the forum to make his argument. So the publication history of TGS is just an extension of Cowen's career to this point.

So yes, it is ironic. He can't shrug it off that easily.

*Note I didn't say everyone had access to them, just the mean/median person, who is probably the same person for these purposes.

Thanking China For Stealing Our Jobs

Look, if China subsidizes green technologies, and then those technologies are created and sold at below-market prices to the U.S., then that is a very good thing for the U.S. It means that China is effectively paying for part of our energy conservation (and, by extension, our energy consumption, since green technologies drive down the price of fossil fuels). Munger nails it:

Look, if the only way you can make money is to pay more than 100% of the purchase price in subsidies, you don't want to be in that business.

Conversely, if you can pay less than 100% of the purchase price to get the product, then that's a really good transaction. This Chinese policy hurts Chinese people and helps American people. In fact, it doubly helps us, because not only do we get solar panels are much lower prices, but we also no longer have to subsidize American production with tax dollars. That money can now go to other productive uses.

We should be pleased. Maybe Amy Chua can have her kids write a really nice "thank you" card.

Did You Know?

When I was growing up, I'd have SportsCenter on in the morning while I was getting ready for school. My favorite segment of the show, "Did You Know?", always came up between 6:50 and 6:58am which was perfect since we always left the house at 7am sharp to make it to school on-time. I'm pretty sure that segment is the reason that I love facts and statistics so much. Another love of mine has been technology and gadgets, which has had me thinking lately about how quickly new technologies are invented that supersede the capabilities of current technology.

A couple of weeks ago, I was thinking about purchasing a Kindle and Will and I had a conversation about how quickly someone would invent something better and whether it was worth it to get the first generation Kindle with no backlight, no color and pretty much no frills or wait til something better came out. Bouncing around the interwebs lately has been noise about the release of the new Apple Tablet which may challenge the Kindle (although McMegan doesn't think so). Apple is also slated to release a new iPhone, the 4g edition, sometime in April/May (which gets my pick for the greatest personal technological advancement of the naughties.) Or maybe something else will enter the market that will completely re-vamp current e-reader technology.

I was pleasantly surprised to come across a video this morning that essentially combines my fascination with technology and my love of facts. This video is full of stats about information technology and innovation and is titled "Did You Know?" It's a really fun watch and shows us just where we are in the course of human civilization and what the future (hopefully) will bring our way.