The results from the 2nd randomized study on the effectiveness of microfinance are in:
So…did microcredit “work” in Manila? Mostly not, as far as the evidence goes. Rossi’s Stainless Steel Law has held: the better the study, the weaker the effect found.
The results from the first randomized study weren't much better.
Via Blattman, who adds: "Aside: What is wrong with the aid industry that the evidence on microcredit – started in 1974 – is still uncertain and early?"