Monday, January 30, 2012

Global Financial Markets FOTD

. Monday, January 30, 2012

Major U.S. banks have about $80bn in exposure to troubled European sovereigns, about $30bn of which is protected via CDS. Think $50-80bn is a lot? It is. But remember that TARP was a $700bn program. Remember that the Fed will hold interest rates at zero percent through 2014. Remember that these same five banks control over $9tn (with a 't') in assets. $50-80bn isn't very much for these companies.

Yes, there is still secondary risk from a sovereign default tipping over European banks, which then hold up U.S. banks. That's not nothing at all, but isn't everything either: unless it's a huge event, large enough to take down all the big banks in Europe, then I wouldn't be exceptionally worried about it. And if it's that big then there's likely nothing you can do about it anyway.

The European mess is mostly a European mess. We're not nearly as susceptible to them as they were/are to us.

(ht: @EconOfContempt)

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Global Financial Markets FOTD
 
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