Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Are (Banking) Crises Becoming More Frequent?

. Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Conventional wisdom holds that banking crises have become ever more frequent during the last thirty years. Here's some evidence.* I think conventional wisdom was perhaps correct from the vantage point of 2000. Not so obvious that this same conclusion emerges from the vantage point of early 2008. In fact, and as I noted to Will this evening, what is perhaps most stunning is how rare banking crises were during the naughts, at least prior to 2008. I would also note that of the 90 banking crises that occurred from 1987 to 1998, exactly five involved an advanced industrialized economy (US in 1988, Finland, Norway and Sweden in 1991, Japan in 1998). Thus, 85 of these crises occurred in developing societies many of which were deeply entrenched in economic reform.

*This time series derived from Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Paper, (June).


Are (Banking) Crises Becoming More Frequent?
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