Thursday, December 9, 2010

From Iceland to...

. Thursday, December 9, 2010

Dave Hart at IPE Journal has a nice historical discussion of "hot money" flows, and their relevance today.

In fact, many emerging markets are toying with capital controls as a way to limit volatility. Brazil has done so, and there is speculation (so far un-founded) that Malaysia will follow suit. Brazil was even somewhat successful in getting pro-capital control language in the G20 communique from Korea ("practical tools to overcome sudden reversals of flows," anyone?). The large exporters will also continue to keep large foreign exchange reserves as a buffer - a policy that turned out to be rather justified in recent years, despite the distorting effects it has on global imbalances and the huge opportunity cost.

He concludes that this is likely to be a growing issue over the next few years, and adds "We do not know who will be blowing up their Land Rovers next."


From Iceland to...




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